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Tuesday, 25 January 2011
Monday, 24 January 2011
personal finance blog
Last we heard in October, the Department of Justice had prepared a flurry of subpoenas to delve into the handling of campaign finances in John Edwards’ presidential run, with a specific eye towards the use of some funds to keep the Rielle Hunter scandal under wraps. Today, the Associated Press reports that the grand jury has targeted Edwards in its probe, and not just Edwards. Subpoenas have been issued for Alliance For a New America (AFNA) and linked organizations, where millions of dollars got spent with no public accounting:
A federal criminal investigation targeting John Edwards is examining how much the two-time presidential candidate knew about money used to cover up his extramarital affair and out-of-wedlock child and whether he had other practices that pushed the bounds of campaign finance laws, people involved in the case have told The Associated Press.
A federal grand jury meeting in Raleigh, N.C., is combing through records and testimony involving several political organizations and individuals connected to Edwards and trying to determine if the former North Carolina senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee broke any laws. A recently issued subpoena focuses on a web of these political groups allied with Edwards, according to subpoena details provided to AP that offer a glimpse into the investigation being conducted behind closed doors.
The situation gets murky indeed when looking at AFNA:
Atop the subpoena list, read to the AP by someone with access to a subpoena, is the Alliance for a New America, which is what is known as a political 527 group, named for the tax code section that governs it. Also on the list is a like-named private entity called Alliance for a New America LLC, or AFNA LLC, and Edwards’ former campaign manager Nick Baldick, who ran the political 527 group in support of Edwards’ bid for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. (IRS records for the same groups refer to the groups as Alliance for New America, without an “a.”)
Baldick and his attorney Jim Lamb would not comment on the federal investigation, but Lamb said Baldick has been told he is not a target of it.
Federal records show that about $3.3 million of the $4.8 million raised by the 527 was distributed to AFNA LLC for unspecified “consulting services.” The 527 and the LLC shared not only their name, but the same Alexandria, Va., post office box and the same contact, a Baldick associate named Katherine Buchanan. A crucial difference between the two Alliance entities was that the LLC was a limited liability company that did not have to publicly disclose how its money was spent.
The question will be whether that distinction was legal on its face, or whether it was used as a dodge to funnel money illegally to Edwards for his own personal use. If the grand jury can connect the expenditures on “consultants” to those who tried keeping the lid on Edwards’ relationship with Hunter, the legality of the edifice may be a moot point anyway. Presumably, the grand jury and the investigators are looking for someone on the inside to testify to how the money got spent. If they do and the money got directed to hide Hunter and keep her quiet, then everyone involved may face conspiracy charges.
AFNA isn’t the only entity under scrutiny, either. The One American Committee paid Hunter over $100,000 for campaign Internet videos that never got published. They also want to see how massive contributions from Fred Baron and Bunny Mellon were distributed, the latter of which got hidden in boxes of chocolates according to former aide Andrew Young’s book with the express purpose of keeping Hunter quiet. Baron claimed to have supported Hunter financially without Edwards’ knowledge, but Young’s book says that Edwards agreed to hit up Mellon for hush money, which the grand jury seems to think may be an interesting avenue of inquiry.
None of this means anything until the grand jury produces indictments, of course — but becoming a target of a grand jury is the one way that happens.
Today, I challenge the conclusions of a blog writer about markets, randomness, and technical analysis as a whole.
This opinion column could get exciting if the conversation continues beyond this challenge, and I hope it does.
Last week, Benzinga readers were alerted to a blog series challenging the effectiveness of technical analysis, especially the use of support and resistance on stock charts. The blog's writer, Adam Grimes of SMB Capital, makes a claim that almost any random line plopped onto a chart will behave like support or resistance.
He includes some nice examples, including a provocative quiz, and extends his theory to build an argument against almost the entire industry of technical analysis. (If you have not familiarized yourself with Grimes' six-part blog series, this might be a good time to do so.) His thesis is that the stock market is highly random - more random than most traders think - and therefore technical analysis tools (such as support, resistance, and indicators) usually provide no real "edge" for making money in the stock market.
Grimes' five-post argument, which can be found here, concludes in a sixth post that applies the thesis to real-world practice. Specifically, Grimes proposes a few profitable trading methods that allegedly do not violate the principle of the market being highly random.
I admire this latest post, as it moves beyond the academic nature of the former posts and addresses the personal implications of his thesis (which is always difficult work to do), as well as offering actual suggestions for action, rather than quitting after his critique. In other words, his final post took some guts, and I respect that.
However, I must admit that I feel slightly disappointed by the finale. I read the first five posts and was growing very excited that Grimes might actually reveal a trading method with a verifiable, non-random, profitable edge. Unfortunately, I must challenge him on his attempt. He has not.
More specifically, he has not actually shown his readers such a trading system, except in theory. I argue that Grimes' suggestions are far too general to actually be used for trading NYSE stocks. More importantly (and the fun part!), I extend my argument to challenge the use of technical analysis on any NYSE stock. Intrigued? Onward!
While awaiting Grimes' sixth post, I had formulated some guesses for what his conclusion might be. First, I had guessed that he might explain hedge-fund-like research for gaining a profitable edge based on special information. This is pretty standard fare in the finance industry, so this was my first guess. Interestingly, Grimes did not mention this at all.
Second, I had guessed that he might reveal a system for trading a "non-random" characteristic of the market - volatility clustering - which was the topic of his fourth post. Volatility clustering is a very human, non-random characteristic of the market, and there are ways to directly profit from it (like trading VIX long after unusual market moves). Although Grimes mentioned volatility clustering, he did not describe a way to directly profit from this characteristic of the market.
Third, I had guessed that Grimes might talk about tape-reading (one of the famous skills of SMB traders), arbitrage, dark pools, or some other way to trade based on inside knowledge of order flow. Grimes mostly overlooked these skills, however, and never mentioned ways to know more orders than the standard, public Level 2 orderbook.
Fourth, I had guessed that he might explain a news-based trading strategy (like buying volatility on certain news events).
Well, I did not find any of my guesses in Grimes' final post. No, instead, I found (in his words):
"Every edge, every advantage, we have as technical traders comes from an imbalance of buying and selling pressure." And again, as the ultimate application in the final section, "Limit trading to those times when there is actual buying or selling imbalance."
Aw. Really, that was the finale?
My disappointment comes for one reason: great idea, but how you can possibly know when that is happening?
How can you know when a stock has "buying pressure" or "selling pressure"? I mean, really know? I am not talking about 20/20 hindsight where someone pulls up a chart of a stock and jabs, "Can you see the buying pressure now?" No, I am talking about the right edge of the chart, that area by the margin that makes all bets fair and contains all the great mysteries of the stock market. Buying and selling pressure is easy when looking at a stock's history, but it is terribly difficult to know where people will buy and sell that stock in the future.
(If you think this is easy, maybe you should take the quiz again.)
The right edge of the chart is where consolidations look like breakouts, and continuations look like reversals. (I know some traders are grinning right now.) The problem with suggesting that traders "buy when there is buying pressure" is, well, the right edge of the chart. Because the right edge of the chart can look like *anything* you want it to look like. If all you have is a chart, NYSE's tape and stock chart, and the Level 2, then I have some serious doubts about your ability to judge when there is buying or selling pressure.
Track with me, because now it gets interesting. Quick.
My lingering doubt about using technical analysis for any NYSE stock is that the consolidated tape streaming out of NYSE headquarters is not the whole truth. It is only a tiny truth- a minuscule fraction of a stock's supply and demand.
Here we go. Do you remember back to your first days of learning about NYSE's tape (a.k.a. the "time and sales" of transactions from which a stock chart is derived)? Aha, let us quickly refresh. NYSE's tape includes transactions that are automatically or manually reported by the NYSE specialist or transacted over Electronic Communication Networks except - and this is a big except - transactions below 100 shares, dark pool transactions, options transactions, swaps, depository receipts trades, contracts for difference, delayed overseas trades, other derivatives volume, and delayed prints for "special" traders like specialists and majority shareholders.
Whew. Even listing out all of those hidden sources of supply and demand makes me cringe. Do you remember learning about any of those exceptions when you learned about the stock market?
These "other" transactions that never appear on NYSE's tape (nor your stock charts) can, at times, be the majority of a stock's price and volume history. The overwhelmingly vast majority! NYSE has warned investors that dark pools alone average 12%+ of daily volume (so that if a stock trades $1B, there was probably another $120M traded on dark pools that never made it onto the tape nor your stock chart). Moreover, this is only an average, so there are days when darkpool transactions are actually larger (reaching perhaps the majority) of NYSE public transactions on a particular stock. Even without these dark pools - just looking at NYSE's public tape - it is not uncommon for a given stock to trade a few hundred thousand shares during a day, and then suddenly NYSE prints a "block" of two million shares in post-market trading, which NYSE will say occurred "over time in the past." Do you recall seeing these prints? They show up all the time. These prints often come as a reminder for traders that some buying and selling pressure is invisible, occurs in hidden markets, is not reported in a timely manner, and can account for the majority of supply and demand.
But oh there's more.
So, we have recalled that an average of 12% of the true stock chart is invisible: historical price and volume data that is hidden in dark pools and never reported to the public. Moreover, "special" market participants have the privilege of delaying the printing of their trades, including specialists, majority shareholders, and several other classes of traders. Then, on top of all of this, we must also add the influence of High Frequency Trading (HFT), which is 50-70% of the tape (and, therefore, stock chart). Finally, we must add the biggest category of all: the effects of derivatives and funds markets. Here, I am talking about the influence of options transactions, swaps, contracts for difference, delayed overseas trades, arbitrage, foreign depository receipts trades, exotics, and other derivatives. These markets have real, non-instantaneous, and often massive effects on the price of a stock, and none of these effects have standardized reporting on the realtime tape or stock chart.
An example might help at this point. Say you are trading GE. You are watching bullish prints on the NYSE tape, a stock chart showing an strong upward trend, and a Level 2 orderbook that shows plenty of strong buyers willing to pay consistently higher prices. You determine that you have, as Grimes suggested, found "an edge" for a profitable trade based on "buying pressure." You buy GE.
Then, suddenly, a trader in Chicago buys 30,000 GE puts (contracts traded on a non-NYSE market that rise in value as the price of stock goes down). GE stock starts to collapse as news of this large transaction circulates, and you lose money.
Or maybe the NYSE specialist prints a delayed block of five million shares significantly below the current GE price, and GE collapses because of the surprise. Or maybe a darkpool trader sells a block of GE stock while buying it in his darkpool for better, hidden prices. Or maybe an international arbitrageur sells a block of GE because he is buying a paired, exotic option contract in Bermuda. The possibilities are endless.
So, what then? Well, beyond losing money, you are also forced to accept that the "buying pressure" you thought was there, was not really there. More importantly, you are forced to accept that you did not have sufficient knowledge to know if there even was buying pressure in the first place. Most importantly, you must consider whether you can *ever* have enough knowledge to determine if there is buying or selling pressure, given that you only have access to one data source (NYSE) that does not include dozens (if not hundreds) of other invisible and inefficiently-updated sources of supply and demand.
The point is not that one unusual event could occur in a secondary market and destroy one of your trades. No, the point is that invisible and secondary market transactions are occurring constantly, suddenly, enormously, unexpectedly, and are a significant (if not majority) amount of the true buying and selling pressure on NYSE stocks. At any time.
Which brings us back full circle. How can Grimes know that there is "an imbalance of buying and selling pressure" if over half of the tape and chart is HFT, 12%+ is kept secret on dark pools, and 100% is being randomly jerked around without warning by arbitrageurs, derivatives contracts, dark pool traders, depository receipts on alternate exchanges, exotics, and yet-to-be-reported "invisible" trades by privileged market participants?
So, there it is, my first challenge to Adam Grimes and all traders who use technical analysis to trade NYSE stocks. Can you explain how you can know if there is buying and selling pressure at the right edge of the chart, given the enormous and inefficiently-reported influence of outside money?
(I hope Adam Grimes knows that this challenge comes in good taste and good fun. Grimes is an extremely intelligent and gifted trader, and his opinion is probably worth many times that of a lowly staff writer for an opinion column. Nevertheless, I hope he enjoys a healthy debate every now and then; and why not discuss something so important for so many in the financial community. Cheers!)
Disclaimer: Benzinga has no affiliation with Adam Grimes or SMB Capital in any way whatsoever. This article was written to solely increase critical awareness of technical analysis, securities markets, and financial concepts. The views and opinions expressed by Adam Grimes and SMB Capital do not necessarily reflect those of Benzinga. Likewise, the views of this staff writer do not necessarily reflect those of Benzinga. Specifically, Benzinga realizes that technical analysis is a valuable tool for many traders and regularly provides diligent technical updates of the markets by experienced technicians for the benefit of these readers.
-- Aaron Wise
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Tuesday, 18 January 2011
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Bill Koch: The Dirty Money Behind Cape Wind Opposition
Our report, “Koch Industries: Secretly Funding the Climate Denial Machine,” exposed Charles and David Koch, the billionaire oilmen who control Koch Industries, as a chief source of funding for the climate denial machine. As it turns out, doing everything possible to delay the clean energy revolution is something of a family business. We’ve released a dossier on Bill Koch, David’s twin brother and the principal funder of opposition to Cape Wind, the project to build the nation’s largest wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts.
Bill Koch made his fortune through his privately-held, carbon-intensive company, Oxbow. (Koch founded Oxbow with the fortune he received from suing his brothers in 1983 after they ousted him from the family business.) Oxbow Corporation, with $3.7 billion in yearly sales and over 1200 employees, sells 10 million metric tons of petroleum coke and 8 million metric tons of steam coal annually.
After making a killing peddling dirty energy, Bill Koch turns around and uses his immense personal wealth to fund the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound, the primary group that finds every possible way to delay Cape Wind from moving forward. Even worse, he pays lobbyists through his Oxbow corporation to try and quietly kill the wind farm project altogether.
We compiled the full story behind Bill Koch into a brief dossier which you can read below or download by right-clicking here: Bill Koch: The Dirty Money Behind Cape Wind Opposition.
See also “New Yorker exposes Koch brothers along with their greenwashing and whitewashing Smithsonian exhibit” and “From promoting acid rain to climate denial — over 20 years of David Koch’s polluter front groups“).
Glacier melt in Peru becomes more than a climate issue
HUARAZ, Peru – Glacier melt hasn’t caused a national crisis in Peru, yet. But high in the Andes, rising temperatures and changes in water supply over the last 40 years have decimated crops, killed fish stocks and forced villages to question how they will survive for another generation.
Without international help to build reservoirs and dams and improve irrigation, the South American nation could become a case study in how climate change can destabilize a strategically important region, according to Peruvian, U.S. and other officials.
“Think what it would be like if the Andes glaciers were gone and we had millions and millions of hungry and thirsty Southern neighbors,” said former CIA Director R. James Woolsey.
Peru is home to 70 percent of the world’s tropical glaciers, which are also found in Bolivia, Ecuador and Chile. Peru’s 18 mountain glaciers, including the world’s largest tropical ice mass, are critical to the region’s water sources for drinking, irrigation and electricity.
Glaciers in the South American Andes are melting faster than many scientists predicted; some climate change experts estimate entire glaciers across the Andes will disappear in 10 years due to rising global temperatures, creating instability across the globe as they melt.
See also “Another one bites the dust, literally: Bolivia’s 18,000 year-old Chacaltaya glacier is gone.”
If Peru and its allies don’t fund and create projects to conserve water, improve decrepit water infrastructure and regulate runoff from glaciers within five years, the disappearance of Andean glaciers could lead to social and economic disaster, said Alberto Hart, climate change adviser at Peru’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“This will become a problem for the United States,” he said. “When you have a dysfunctional country, you have a problem for the entire region.”
The United States spent $30 million on climate change assistance in Peru in fiscal year 2010, according to documents provided by the State Department. The funding, allocated as part of the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, went mostly to preserving the Amazon rainforest in Peru.
Peruvian officials would hardly turn away money to preserve the Amazon. But the immediate problem is adaptation to rapid glacier melt, Hart said….
The Peruvian government is asking Washington and other allies for at least $350 million every year through 2030 to build reservoirs and dams, and improve irrigation, said Hart.
Japan, Australia and Switzerland also have offered assistance for climate change, Hart said. The World Bank is also working in Peru to monitor water supplies and implement drought-resistant agriculture, part of a larger climate change project that includes several Andean nations, according to Walter Vergara, a World Bank engineer who started the project in 2004.
But Peruvian officials say the United States has a majority share of the responsibility to help Peru, because of the close trade alliance between the two nations, and because the United States is the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases….
Bolivia and Ecuador are also threatened by glacier melt and Colombia’s costal and riverside cities are being wiped out by floods and landslides – disasters that are only expected to get worse, according to a study by the Pew Center on Climate Change.
Climate change is “a significant threat” to the region, and the United States must “really come to terms” with the security challenges it poses, Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere Arturo Valenzuela said recently….
“It used to take you two or three hours walking to reach the ice. But now you have to walk five, six hours to reach ice,” said Maximo Juan Malpaso Carranza, a farmer in Utupampa, a small community high in the Cordillera Blanca.
“We all get water from there,” he said, pointing to Huascarán. “But if the ice disappears, there won’t be any more water.”
More than 2 million people, stretching from the Andes to the coastal cities, get their drinking water and irrigation from rivers fed by glacier runoff from Cordillera Blanca. But research by Cesar Portocarrero, the Peruvian government’s lead glacier scientist, shows the Cordillera Blanca has lost 30 percent of its glaciers since 1970.
Most of Peru’s agriculture is fed by water from the Andes. Glacier-fed rivers also support the nation’s largest hydroelectric plants. Lima, the world’s second-largest desert city, is almost totally dependent on Andean rivers from the Cordillera Central, where some mountains have lost more than 60 percent of their glaciers in the last 40 years.
Water conflicts have been frequent in southern Peru over the last few years, and glacier melt will create even more across the country, and, in extreme cases, spreading to neighboring countries, said retired Maj. Gen. Luis Palomino Rodriguez, head of Peru’s National Civil Defense Institute, in an interview.
The Pentagon is starting to address the impacts of climate change. It gave the Southern Command, in charge of Latin America, $600,000 to develop a mapping tool that will allow Latin America and the United States to share information about climate change risks. It is also spending $1.4 million to study the climate change effects on foreign military bases….
Peru has taken steps, but lacks resources. It created a national strategy on climate change in 2003 and has set up a Ministry of Environment with oversight of climate change programs. Officials are working with USAID and non-profit organizations to build reservoirs in Andean communities and monitor water flow from the glaciers.
“We may think that current wait-and-see policies are adequate to the task,” said Chad Briggs, Minerva Chair for Energy and Environmental Security with the U.S. Air Force. “Peru may be a looming example of how that is not the case.”
Related Post:
- Must-see video: Time-lapse proof of extreme ice loss
Friday, 14 January 2011
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Crunch Gym app lets you avoid check-in lines | Health Tech - CNET <b>News</b>
Crunch Fitness unveils its first app, created with IdeaWork Studios, enabling iPhone and Android users to find locations, see class schedules, and check in. Read this blog post by Elizabeth Armstrong Moore on Health Tech.
No, your zodiac sign hasn't changed – This Just In - CNN.com Blogs
Tattoo parlor owners must be salivating. An assertion in a Minneapolis Star Tribune article that our understanding of the zodiac is off by about a month -- and that therefore people have been identifying themselves with the wrong sign ...
Wind warning expires - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
A wind warning for northern Illinois expired this evening after two days of high winds, with gusts today topping 50 mph through much of northern Illinois and northern Indiana. The warning was in effect today until 7 p.m., according to ...
Thursday, 13 January 2011
Making Money Secrets
The film’s official plot synopsis follows:
Hanna (to be played by Ms. Ronan) is a teenage girl. Uniquely, she has the strength, the stamina, and the smarts of a solider; these come from being raised by her father (Mr. Bana), an ex-CIA man, in the wilds of Sweden. Living a life unlike any other teenager, her upbringing and training have been one and the same, all geared to making her the perfect assassin. The turning point in her adolescence is a sharp one; sent into the world by her father on a mission, Hanna journeys stealthily across Europe while eluding agents dispatched after her by a ruthless intelligence operative with secrets of her own (Ms. Blanchett). As she nears her ultimate target, Hanna faces startling revelations about her existence and unexpected questions about her humanity.
Seth Lochhead wrote the initial screenplay and has written subsequent drafts, as have David Farr, Joe Penhall, and Mr. Wright. Hanna will hit theaters on April 8th 2011.
It’s not all roses for the PS3 following further developments on the thriving PS3 hacking front today, as the group responsible for the Wii’s Homebrew Channel, going by the slightly counter-intuitive moniker of fail0verflow have turned their attention to Sony’s pride and joy and have summarily proceeded to strip it of its secrets. If you go by their word, at least.
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Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
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Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Small Business <b>News</b>: Twitter Tycoons
With just 140 characters, Twitter has changed what it means to communicate. And, in case you haven't noticed, the way we do business too. If you aren't using.
Sarah Palin Appearing On Sean Hannity's Fox <b>News</b> Show Monday (VIDEO)
Sarah Palin will give her first interview since the Arizona shootings--and her controversial "blood libel" video--to Fox News' Sean Hannity. Palin will appear on "Hannity" on Monday, Jan. 17.
Blagojevich defense wants Obama subpoenaed - Chicago Breaking <b>News</b>
Attorneys for former Gov. Rod Blagojevich today asked a federal judge to subpoena President Barack Obama to testify in Blagojevich's upcoming corruption trial on charges that include allegations Blagojevich sought to sell Obama's former ...
Monday, 10 January 2011
foreclosure defense
Obama is history!
Obama was always a one term show!
any political strategist knows few black candidates win statewide re-elections, no black candidates wins re-election win he or she pisses off their liberal base.
Obama was always a Clarence Thomas Clone, Obama knew that a black conservatives never would win the White House, so he done a Reagan, “ACTED” like he was a Democrat. (Reagan acted like he was a President, History will say Reagan started the decline of the USA)
The MSM final act with OBAMA is to make sure no real Democrats primary this clown! (the games have already begun, listen closely, Obama always beats Palin, does Obama beat Romney? NO!!!)
the target of the intelligent left should be the 23 democrat senators up for re-election in 2012! Why? it is very simple, these Senators want to win re-election, (the intelligent left must get ahead of the KABUKI game, Obama is old news, attack the 23 Dems up for re-election in 2012! and you may force them to dump OBAMA)
The left must tie OBAMA around the necks of all these Senators up for re-election! Obama is already TOXIC, make him NUCLEAR WASTE and the Dem Senators will force a primary of OBAMA!
Listed below is the OBAMA necklace that all Dems Senator must wear in 2012
1st Obama endorses the Bush agenda of spying on and killing americans
2nd Obama attacks Unions (the F! the UAW moment screams republican)
3rd Obama double downs on Bush Wars, (now they are Obama wars)
4th Obama attacks Teacher Unions (teacher unions now hate OBAMA)
5th Obama does not attack the Banks? he bails them out? (sorta like what the GOP does)
6th Obama passes the Bob Dole Health Care Bill (Bob Dole is a republican)
7th Obama kills the Public Option
8Th Obama kills Drug Importation
9Th Obama APPOINTS an insurance executive to manage his health care Bill
10th Obama does not APPOINT Dawn Johnsen
11th Obama hand picks the cat food commission to destroy Social Security
12th Obama supports Blanche Lincoln, a candidate who hates Unions, and has no chance of winning
13 Guantanomo still open for business
14.Patriot Act renewed
15. renditions continue
16. Bernanke reappointed
17. Americans targeted for assassination
18 Obama is all for sending more USA jobs off shore
19 Obama is for tax cuts for the RICH!
20. Obama and the TSA porno Scandal
21 Obama freezes federal wages for 2 years
22. OBAMA TARP Funds for Legal Services for Foreclosure Victims Blocked By Treasury
23. Obama lowers estate tax for the rich
24. Obama tax bill of 2010 GUTS Social Security
25. Obama wants WikiLeaks Assange charged with espionage.
26 Obama Fake Net Neutrality Caves to AT&T,Comcast
Coming in 2012
Gas prices above $4.00 close to $5.00 a gallon (this will end OBAMA)
Mass un-employment!
99ers living on main street (Homeless at an all time high)
social security cuts
the MSM will scream how Obama is un-beatable, if you believe that garbage, go visit Santa Clause in the North Pole and telling him hello from all of us! :)
Where can I find some of those class action suits to join? Just tell me and I’ll join it! I completed the online app regarding one case (the one from WA also has something they’ve listed on their website in Phx. court) I’ve never heard a word back from them. I called the law firm here in Phx., and they referred me to the WA office. They said the WA office was taking the lead on the case. All I got was a recording. That was in mid-Nov. I’m not sure if I’m going to be part of the case or not. I don’t know if you can be part of several cases or not?
Also, where can I get me one of those forensic real estate specialists. I’m pretty sure I will be forced at some point to sue BofA to get them to make an adult decision on my modification. It’s obvious that they are just playing games with my modification. I can’t imagine the (mostly lawyers?) legislators that created HAMP allowing the banks to continue to apply (mostly late) fees to the accounts of folks who have applied for a modification month after month after month forever or for an indefinite period. Also, what I’m seeing is fees that escalate over time, as in, $29/mo. for the first 3 months; $59/mo. for the second 3 months; $89 for the third 3 months. I don’t know if or when the fees cap out. So far, I’ve never been late and never missed a payment. In fact, for a period of 3 months, they had a full amount extra payment which they got due to a failure of humans to communicate properly with a computer. I requested that they return the amount they got by mistake, but the bank continued to “study” whether I’m entitled to my own money until I had another payment due that had not been prearranged as part of my “trial” period. The overpayment was in April, but I told them I would not be sending my July payment in since they already have the money to cover the July payment. They got the money in April.
About a month ago they were saying that I owed them over $1,600. I applied for my mod in January; BofA received my completed package on Feb. 12, 2010; my “trial” amount was $107.79 less than my normal mtg amount was. My point is, BofA is obviously taking advantage, and it is to their advantage to keep the homeowner dangling for as long as legally possible and then deny them but demand both the lost principle and interest AND escalating late fees generated by their delaying tactics. Sure wish I knew a forensic real estate specialist or a lawyer who could not only win, but would either be affordable or get the bank to pay my legal fees, who could tell me if any of the banks tactics are legal.
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Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
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Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
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Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
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Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
bench craft company reviews bench craft company reviews
Top <b>news</b> stories in China 2010
A Sinica podcast and lists from the Chinese media and Internet of the top news stories of 2010, year of the Tiger.
AOL Hires Fox <b>News</b> Vet To Double AOL.com Traffic By End Of Winter
This might actually be a smart move - the audience is exactly what "wtfinator" described. The news team there is often called out for leaning left in the comments on any stories posted on aol.com. Plays to their core. ...
ETF DAILY <b>NEWS</b> » Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to <b>...</b>
Gas Prices are Headed Higher – Here's How to Profit (OIL, DBO, UGA, COP, JPM, CEO, CHK)
Friday, 7 January 2011
Making Money Ebay
In 1995 I remember waiting in lines to buy Windows 95. It effectively ended the design lead Apple had for 11 years in personal computers. From then on Microsoft had both the thought leadership and the market share. Apple ended up with less than 10% market share. Microsoft had most of the rest.
Lots of people think that Apple could repeat 1995 in 2011. This time with iOS instead of Macintosh OS and with Google in the place of Microsoft.
We forget one little thing: 1995 was different.
Here’s how.
In 1995 Microsoft had a HUGE marketshare lead with DOS. That meant it had a huge army of developers who didn’t want to switch over to Apple’s system, which they saw as very closed and inflexible. I remember developers coming into the consumer electronics store I helped run in the 1980s and they’d complain bitterly about Apple’s policies (Apple was far less flexible back then than it is today and forced developers to fit into a “look and feel” set of guidelines).
But I look at who is making money. Back in 1995 developers were mostly making money from DOS. Remember, this caused WordPerfect and Borland to make bad bets. They bet on DOS for too long, while Bill Gates went and built some of the first and best Macintosh apps. The lesson, though, doesn’t pass from 1995 to 2011. Today where are most of the developers making their money? iOS (according to Sephora, Starbucks, OpenTable, eBay, and many other developers). So, Android has to convince developers to switch, or do both platforms at same time. That’s quite different.
Plus, back in 1995, who owned the best distribution and supply chains? Microsoft did. Today? Apple does. Apple didn’t have stores back in 1995 which will ensure its products get seen in the marketplace. Back then Microsoft could outspend Apple for shelf space at Frys and other retailers. Plus, Microsoft’s model of having many OEMs building hardware for its OS was far superior to Apple’s approach. Today that’s not really true, because the OEMs aren’t really able to bring that much value to the table and Apple has the best supply chains in China locked up (I visited one of them about two years ago and keep in touch with the folks there and that’s still the case). So, it’s not very likely that a Google phone will ship with better screens or better materials. At least not in volume. That is a huge difference from 1995 to today.
Other differences? Apple has outspent Microsoft on Advertising around the world. Look at this picture. It’s in Paris subway. Apple bought every square inch of advertising space (it bought the entire subway system’s advertising space, it seemed, iPad ads were plastered down the entire trackway). Google isn’t able to get its message there. That didn’t happen in 1995. Remember how dominant Microsoft’s advertising was back then? Microsoft even convinced the Empire State Building to change its colors that evening.
Let’s go back to how closed Apple is. Most apps this month got approved in less than a week. Some even got approved in less than four days. During the Christmas rush. Is this as good as Android’s (you can ship in minutes) policy? No. But, on the other hand, there are quality controls which consumers appreciate. The apps — overall — ARE better on iOS than on Android. Just check out TweetDeck. It crashes every few minutes on my Android phone. Twitter isn’t nearly as nice. Facebook isn’t as nice. And most apps aren’t as well designed, nor crash resistant, as on iOS.
I am sensing a switch, though. Fred Wilson is leading the charge. But other developers are grumbling about Apple and want there to be an alternative and they are all comparing notes with each other. “How’s Angry Birds doing with its advertising-only Android apps?” they ask. Very well, the answer comes back. So that means more developers will take the bet on Android, but so far I haven’t seen many go “Android only.” Why not? Because they know most of the PR comes from journalists who use mostly iOS devices and most of the best users are on iOS devices too (Sephora’s lead mobile developer told me 80% of the users who pull out a mobile phone in her stores are using iOS, that is echoed by nearly every developer I talk with). Even Swype, which has been kept from delivering their keyboard on iOS devices showed me a prototype of it running on an iPad and the inventor whispered “if Steve Jobs wants to talk, we’d love to ship this on iOS.”
So, when someone says that Apple is repeating the mistakes of 1995 (yes, I’ve been guilty of saying that in the past couple of years too) you should tell them that 2011 is not even close to the same set of conditions as 1995 has.
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In 1995 I remember waiting in lines to buy Windows 95. It effectively ended the design lead Apple had for 11 years in personal computers.From then on Microsoft had both the thought leadership and the market share. Apple ended up with less than 10% market share. Microsoft had most of the rest.
Lots of people think that Apple could repeat 1995 in 2011. This time with iOS instead of Macintosh OS and with Google in the place of Microsoft.
We forget one little thing: 1995 was different.
Here’s how.
In 1995 Microsoft had a HUGE marketshare lead with DOS. That meant it had a huge army of developers who didn’t want to switch over to Apple’s system, which they saw as very closed and inflexible. I remember developers coming into the consumer electronics store I helped run in the 1980s and they’d complain bitterly about Apple’s policies (Apple was far less flexible back then than it is today and forced developers to fit into a “look and feel” set of guidelines).
But I look at who is making money. Back in 1995 developers were mostly making money from DOS. Remember, this caused WordPerfect and Borland to make bad bets. They bet on DOS for too long, while Bill Gates went and built some of the first and best Macintosh apps. The lesson, though, doesn’t pass from 1995 to 2011. Today where are most of the developers making their money? iOS (according to Sephora, Starbucks, OpenTable, eBay, and many other developers). So, Android has to convince developers to switch, or do both platforms at same time. That’s quite different.
Plus, back in 1995, who owned the best distribution and supply chains? Microsoft did. Today? Apple does. Apple didn’t have stores back in 1995 which will ensure its products get seen in the marketplace. Back then Microsoft could outspend Apple for shelf space at Frys and other retailers. Plus, Microsoft’s model of having many OEMs building hardware for its OS was far superior to Apple’s approach. Today that’s not really true, because the OEMs aren’t really able to bring that much value to the table and Apple has the best supply chains in China locked up (I visited one of them about two years ago and keep in touch with the folks there and that’s still the case). So, it’s not very likely that a Google phone will ship with better screens or better materials. At least not in volume. That is a huge difference from 1995 to today.
Other differences? Apple has outspent Microsoft on Advertising around the world. Look at this picture. It’s in Paris subway. Apple bought every square inch of advertising space (it bought the entire subway system’s advertising space, it seemed, iPad ads were plastered down the entire trackway). Google isn’t able to get its message there. That didn’t happen in 1995. Remember how dominant Microsoft’s advertising was back then? Microsoft even convinced the Empire State Building to change its colors that evening.
Let’s go back to how closed Apple is. Most apps this month got approved in less than a week. Some even got approved in less than four days. During the Christmas rush. Is this as good as Android’s (you can ship in minutes) policy? No. But, on the other hand, there are quality controls which consumers appreciate. The apps — overall — ARE better on iOS than on Android. Just check out TweetDeck. It crashes every few minutes on my Android phone. Twitter isn’t nearly as nice. Facebook isn’t as nice. And most apps aren’t as well designed, nor crash resistant, as on iOS.
I am sensing a switch, though. Fred Wilson is leading the charge. But other developers are grumbling about Apple and want there to be an alternative and they are all comparing notes with each other. “How’s Angry Birds doing with its advertising-only Android apps?” they ask. Very well, the answer comes back. So that means more developers will take the bet on Android, but so far I haven’t seen many go “Android only.” Why not? Because they know most of the PR comes from journalists who use mostly iOS devices and most of the best users are on iOS devices too (Sephora’s lead mobile developer told me 80% of the users who pull out a mobile phone in her stores are using iOS, that is echoed by nearly every developer I talk with). Even Swype, which has been kept from delivering their keyboard on iOS devices showed me a prototype of it running on an iPad and the inventor whispered “if Steve Jobs wants to talk, we’d love to ship this on iOS.”
So, when someone says that Apple is repeating the mistakes of 1995 (yes, I’ve been guilty of saying that in the past couple of years too) you should tell them that 2011 is not even close to the same set of conditions as 1995 has.
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