Here is the busy economic schedule for the coming week.
• Egpyt
From the NY Times: Military Offers Assurances to Egypt and Neighbors
From the WSJ: Egypt's Military Moves to Clear Tahrir Square
From the Financial Times: Egyptian youth groups seek army talks
Below is a summary of the previous week, mostly in graphs.
• Trade Deficit increased in December
Click on graphs for larger image in graph gallery.
The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through December 2010.
December exports were $163.0 billion, up from $160.1 billion in November. December imports were $203.5 billion, up from $198.5 billion in November.
Imports had been mostly flat since May, but increased again in December. Exports have started increasing again after the mid-year slowdown.
The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through December.
The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. The trade deficit was $40.6 billion, up from $38.3 billion in November.
The petroleum deficit increased in December as both quantity and import prices continued to rise - averaging $79.78 in December. Prices will be even higher in January. Once again oil and China deficits are essentially the entire trade deficit (or even more).
• CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.8% in December
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index is down 5.46% over the last year, and off 31.6% from the peak.
This is the fifth straight month of year-over-year declines, and the sixth straight month of month-to-month declines. The index is only 0.07% above the low set in March 2009 (essentially at the low), and I expect to see a new post-bubble low for this index with the January release.
• NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in January
From National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): "The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.5 points in January, a modest increase, opening the new year with a reading of 94.1."
This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in December.
Although still fairly low, this is the highest level for the index since December 2007.
This graph shows the net hiring plans over the next three months.
Hiring plans decreased slightly in January but are still positive.
The recovery is sluggish for the small business optimism index (probably because of the high concentration of real estate related companies), but this is the highest level for the optimism index since December 2007.
• Consumer Sentiment increases slightly in February
The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 75.1 in February from 74.2 in January.
This was at the consensus forecast of 75.0.
Sentiment is still at levels usually associated with a recession - and sentiment is well below the pre-recession levels.
• Other Economic Stories ...
• From Treasury: Proposed plan for Fannie and Freddie press release and here is the report
• AAR: Rail Traffic increases in January
• Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index decreases slightly in January
• Bernanke Testimony: The Economic Outlook and Monetary and Fiscal Policy
• From NY Fed Vice President Brian Sack: Implementing the Federal Reserve’s Asset Purchase Program
• CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased slightly in December
• From RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity Increases 1 Percent in January
• Unofficial Problem Bank list at 944 Institutions
Best wishes to all!
Politico also reports that Issa has built a preliminary list of investigations that he will have Oversight conduct into White House actions over the past two years. None of them will surprise anyone, but the list seems perhaps a little more modest than Democrats may have feared:
According to an outline of the committee’s hearing topics obtained by POLITICO, the House Oversight and Government Reform is also planning to investigate how regulation impacts job creation, the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the foreclosure crisis; recalls at the Food and Drug Administration and the failure of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission to agree on the causes of the market meltdown. …
Despite his bombastic reputation, Issa has tried to project a more subtle image in the days leading up to his takeover of the committee. He’s trying to project an image of being a stickler for government waste and not a partisan bomb thrower with an eye fixed on ruining the Obama administration. A look at the preliminary hearing schedule illustrates that Issa plans to stay away from hurling subpoenas at the White House.
Stimulus oversight isn’t among the early hearings, which may come as a surprise since Issa recently met with Vice President Joe Biden to discuss stimulus spending. In one of his three Sunday show appearances this week, Issa even said Congress should share in the blame for what he considers the mismanagement of the stimulus.
Still, the Issa agenda will take aim at what he believes are missteps by the administration.
In investigating the impact of regulation on job creation, the committee plans to ask why the economy hasn’t “created the private sector jobs the president has promised,” and he’s calling in business leaders to explain “about the government regulations that are doing the most harm to job creation efforts.”
It looks as though Issa plans to start on issues where he can get bipartisan consensus for probes and work on building some momentum. I’m a little surprised that Issa hasn’t included, even in that sense, a probe of the firing of Inspector General Gerald Walpin and the expanded use of “czars” by this administration. The termination of the IG for his opposition to a deal cut with an Obama ally amounts to a rebuke of Congress, which supposedly gave IGs job security so that they would do their work without fear of retribution from the executive branch. The “czars” also represent an end run in at least some cases around Congressional oversight.
If a bipartisan consensus cannot be generated to protect Congress’ constitutional privileges, then perhaps bipartisanship in this context is overrated, and Issa should consider expanding his definition of “corruption” a little wider.
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Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
benchcraft company scam
Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
benchcraft company scam
Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
benchcraft company scam
Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
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Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
benchcraft company scam
Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
benchcraft company scam
Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
bench craft company scam
Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
bench craft company scam
Fox <b>News</b> Caught Smearing Ron Paul | Death and Taxes
Fox News was caught flagrantly deceiving viewers in a smear on Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Small Business <b>News</b>: SMBs and the Economy
Recently businesses have expressed concern over excessive regulations that have made conducting business ever more expensive, often with limited justification.
Yahoo! Marketing, Tech and Management in the <b>News</b> | Yahoo <b>...</b>
A trio of stories from across the globe shows Yahoo!'s leadership.
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